By Zhong Sheng, People’s Daily
Washington’s pursuit of unilateralism and protectionism – wielding tariffs as blunt instruments and provoking trade frictions – is taking a mounting toll on the global economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook(WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded global growth forecasts for this year and next, citing U.S. tariff hikes as a key factor of the downturn.
Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026 – down from 3.3 percent for both years in January’s WEO Update, according to the WEO.
Regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs, the report explicitly said that a series of new tariff measures by the U.S. and countermeasures by trading partners have been announced and implemented, ending up in near-universal U.S. tariffs on April 2 and bringing effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century. Noting that the tariffs aloneare a “major negative shock,”the “unpredictability” with which these measures have unfolded negatively impacts economic activity and the outlook, the report said.
By trampling on multilateral trade rules and attempting to reshape the global economic order through coercive means, the U.S. is essentially forcing the rest of the world to pay the price for its own interest.
“The world economic order is breaking down,”one analyst warned, as U.S. tariff policies reverberate far beyond its borders. The reckless escalation is like hurling a boulder into the heart of the global economy, sending disruptive waves through supply chains, markets, and livelihoods around the world.
Beyond the immediate drag on global growth, these tariff shocks threaten deeper, more enduring structural damage -stifling global innovation, increasing trade barriers to green technologies, and slowing momentum toward sustainable development.
By undermining the multilateral trading system in favor of unilateral and protectionist moves, the U.S. is dismantling the institutional framework that has enabled decades of shared growth. Developing countries and emerging markets are bearing the brunt of this fallout.
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization has warned that the imposition of tariffs presents significant challenges to global economic development and industrial growth, particularly for developing and least developed countries since tariffs undermine their potential to fully participate in global trade and hamper their efforts to diversify and modernize their industrial sectors.
The economic coercion of the U.S. is stripping Global South nations of their legitimate right to development, exposing the hypocrisy behind its so-called “fair trade.”
American economic history has already shown the consequences of protectionism. Scott Reynolds Nelson, a history professor at the University of Georgia, noted that since the beginning of the 19th century, the U.S. has suffered six economic depressions. All but one were either directly caused or significantly worsened by tariffs and trade embargoes. The infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods to record levels, exacerbated the U.S. economic depression and contributed largely to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
More recently, the trade war unilaterally and wantonly initiated by the U.S. proved to be an expensive policy experiment. The lessons of history are clear: Washington must avoid repeating past mistakes.
Over 970 people, including dozens of the world’s top economists have recently signed an “Anti-Tariff Declaration” launched by American economists and policy experts. The declaration criticizes the tariff policy adopted by the U.S. as “misguided” while warning of a potential “self-inflicted recession.”
The concerns voiced by economists are quickly becoming a reality. In the U.S., egg prices have skyrocketed to unprecedented levels, babyproducts are in short supply, small business owners are lamenting their inability to survive, and farmers are complaining that they are losing not just markets but also their future.
The New York Times noted that tariff uncertainty paralyzes American businesses. The IMF’sWEO said that growth in the U.S. is expected to slow to 1.8 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower relative to the projection in January’s forecast due to greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and softer demand momentum – marking the steepest downgrade among advanced economies.
History offers a clear warning: beggar-thy-neighbor economic bullying will inevitably backfire, and the only sustainable path for countries to move forward is openness and cooperation.The U.S. must step back from the brink and work with all parties to build an open world economy, so as to inject stability and positive energy into the world.
(Zhong Sheng is a pen name often used by People’s Daily to express its views on foreign policy and international affairs.)
